The Curation by Nour Hassan

Elena Marinoni: Trend Forecasting and AI in a Multicultural World at Istituto Marangoni Dubai

• Nour Hassan • Season 10 • Episode 123

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In this episode our founder Nour Hassan speaks to trend forecasting expert Elena Marinoni, Director of Education at the Istituto Marangoni in Dubai, who provides an insider's view into the mechanisms driving the arts, culture, and fashion sectors. Prepare to explore the fascinating methodology behind identifying weak signals of change, distinguishing between fleeting and enduring trends, and navigating the complex "snowstorm effect" catalyzed by social media's rapid pace. Elena reveals how AI is reshaping trend forecasting, offering both exciting new opportunities and unique challenges in our ever-evolving market landscape.

Our journey takes us into the heart of Istituto Marangoni Dubai at DIFC a multicultural hub, where creativity and innovation thrive. With Elena's guidance, we examine the intricate dance of trend identification and mainstream acceptance, and why nurturing intellectual curiosity is paramount for emerging designers. Reflect on the profound impact of environment, with Marangoni Dubai serving as a beacon for cultural fusion and creativity. Plus, discover the magic of nostalgia and the dynamic blend of street style with formal wear as they redefine modern aesthetics.

For more information visit Istituto Marangoni Dubai.

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Nour Hassan:

Hey everyone, this is Noor, and you guys are listening to the 10th season of the Radical Contemporary podcast. The podcast has had over 100 guests so far and they have been some of the most successful, pioneering and absolutely radical individuals in the region and in the world. In this episode, I got to interview the Director of Education at the Estituto Marangoni in Dubai, elena Marenoni, and I was so honored to have a private tour with Elena at the Marangoni Institute in Dubai, where we saw the incredible facility, the beautiful design, the students interacting, as well as, of course, the space itself, which is, in and of itself, extremely impressive. Elena's background is in trend forecasting. She worked as head of trend research at NextAtlascom, an AI-driven trend forecasting platform aimed to identify emerging trends on social media. Elena studied at the Polytechnical University in Milan. Between 2020 and 2022, she was the program leader for the visual design department in the Marangoni Institute of Design in Milan. Starting 2022, she was appointed the director of education at the Marangoni Institute in Dubai, located in the beating heart of DIFC, which has become actually a key community hub for top fashion and design professionals in the Middle East.

Nour Hassan:

So, without further ado, this is my conversation with Elena on trend forecasting in the Middle East and beyond, east and beyond. Hi everyone, I am currently sitting with Elena Maranoni, director of Education at the Instituto Marangoni in Dubai, and she is telling me that not only are the institutes here accredited as one of the first or the first university institutes accredited by the UAE or, you know, taken as a proper university institute, but the courses are bachelor's and master's degrees. Elena's expertise comes in trend forecasting, and this is something that I think we need more than ever now. I'm very interested in this topic as Nour, so I'm going to start by asking you how do you define trend forecasting in the context of arts, culture and fashion? Like what is trend forecasting?

Elena Marinoni:

First, of all, thank you, nora, for having me in your podcast, and it's my pleasure actually to have the chance to tell you something more about Istituto Marangoni, dubai, our vision in higher education and how key is trend forecasting in our curriculum. I would say that trend forecasting is a methodology of research, but it's a very strategic methodology of research that is becoming more and more key nowadays because we live in times of uncertainty, because the market is evolving very fast. There are a lot of drivers of change that are redefining consumer behaviors, aesthetics, but, generally speaking, styles, and so, through trend forecasting, our students get to learn how to detect weak signals of change. Then they learn how to decode these weak signals, interpreting them and unveiling patterns of change that will redefine and open new scenarios for brands and for themselves as creative minds.

Nour Hassan:

I wanted to ask what are the differences between short-term and long-term trend forecasting? Because obviously, every fashion house, every art and design house, they have cycles and some of them follow the calendar and some of them don't. But I feel recently there have been many shifts in trend forecasting regarding how far in advance and how quickly we adopt trends. So what's your opinion on this particular timeline matter?

Elena Marinoni:

Well, the world of trends is really a fascinating one, because we, first of all, should be aware of the difference between the so-called FADs, the micro trends, the micro trends, the mega trends, the styles.

Elena Marinoni:

So one of the very first thing that we clarify to our students is the difference between these different typologies of phenomena.

Elena Marinoni:

We live, for sure, in an age dominated by new media driven trends, and this has disrupted the dynamics through which trends propagate, meaning that more and more trends have become short-term trends, super ephemeral, super viral. Sometimes they just last a few hours and then they are gone and accordingly, the methodologies that we use to forecast the evolution of trends have changed to keep the pace with this changing scenario, in a way. And thus we are living in an age where we witness the proliferation of trends and these trends become more and more, in a way, out of control. We use a fascinating metaphor to define this kind of dynamic, which is the snowstorm effect. So, basically, when you are experiencing a snowstorm, you are immersed in a context where everything moves so fast that you can't understand very well the trend creator, the follower, the first mover, and basically the trend is everywhere and you feel it's a bit chaotic situation, and this is basically one of the main effects and consequences of our social media-driven age.

Nour Hassan:

Actually it's interesting because I used to really believe in the first mover advantage and I think it still exists. But really you have to be very loud and impactful at the beginning and it's very hard to actually come up. You know, come into a medium as a new adopter. When I started podcasting, I'm based in Cairo. It was one of the first podcasts there, so I think I had a very big first mover advantage there, but in the region it was already adopted, so there had to be a lot of work to be done. I want to ask you a little bit about AI and how it plays into trends. You were at NextAtlasus, so this is a very major trend forecasting company. Obviously, ai has helped us all adopt trends faster sound, you know like. You know exactly what's going on the tone, everything like that. So give me a pro and a con of AI's adoption and with specifically regarding trend forecasting.

Elena Marinoni:

Over the past 10 years, we have witnessed this big disruption with the advent of big data, ai, computer vision, deep learning, applied to so many different fields, including, of course, trend forecasting.

Elena Marinoni:

Well, traditional trend forecasting used to be expert-driven, qualitative, also very, I would say, subjective in a way, and it used to require also a lot of investment and time to get to a point where you get a big picture, like a scenario, and so on. With the advent of AI, of course, the process has and efficient, but also effective, data-driven, less subjective. I do believe that the integration of different methodologies is always the best thing, meaning that an AI-driven approach, a data-driven approach to trend forecasting, can be definitely enhanced and empowered by the vision of experts that have a more, let's say, vertical and sound opinion on a given field. So, in this sense, we live in interesting times. So, in this sense, we live in interesting times because, especially if you use trend forecasting to provide brands with consultancy.

Elena Marinoni:

It's important to combine different methodologies, so I'm not so orthodox, meaning or qualitative or quantitative. I do believe that the best combination of the two can help brands and creative minds tune in with the evolution of trends and benefit from them amazing.

Nour Hassan:

Okay, I want you actually to add a little bit to this. So do you think that AI can actually predict trends? Because I think the qualitative aspect that you mentioned is key Intuition, creativity, that human insight of I feel this will be the next thing. So this is something I'd love for you to just extend on. And then, right after this, I want to get into the idea of micro influencers and influencers. I think there is a very interesting insight that micro influencers are where the trends maybe begin. I'm not sure, as a micro influencer myself, so I can't say but. And then influencers, you know, bring these trends to the masses. But I'd love to know what you think.

Elena Marinoni:

Well, two interesting points. The first one, the limit of AI. I can tell you definitely that an AI-driven approach to trend forecasting is exceptionally, let's say, accurate when it comes to measuring the evolution of a trend. Basically, you have to track how a trend is spreading, where, what industries are. More of accuracy in supporting a trend through metrics, the penetration of the trend, the coverage, the semantic area, the popularity across different targets of users and so on. So, in this sense, the accuracy when the trend is already there and it reaches a popularity, that basically can be monitored also through a data-driven approach. Interesting.

Elena Marinoni:

The limit, as you said, is when a trend is completely and radically new, which is incredibly rare, if I can be honest with you. This is also where intuition and expertise come into play and make the difference. The second point was actually about the role of micro-influencers, micro or nano-influencers that I also love defining as industry insiders, because they not only influence the opinion of others but they are, let's say, frontrunners in their field. Yes, so they conduct research, they are super updated, they are open-minded, they love discovering the next big thing and, in this sense, they play a crucial role in the curve of trend diffusion, which is a bell-shaped curve, according to the theories at the base of this methodology, because they are not yet the big celebrities that create mass adoption and facilitate the mainstream trends. However, they play a bit the role of the gatekeepers. They filter innovations, they select the best and most interesting things, and so sometimes they are underestimated in the development of trends, whereas they are the real gatekeepers, in my opinion so the word gatekeepers is a really interesting one.

Nour Hassan:

I love that you used it, elena, because on tiktok it is very much, like you know, a sort of running joke on the platform that they are in the know and everyone else is not, and I love that because I think it gives it a sense of like, there's a, there's sort of a we. We are the ones that are sort of giving you the static, giving you the, the, the, the vibe, whatever it is. I want to know a little bit more about how you, as Elena, identify something that has the potential to be a trend and has the potential for mainstream adoption. So what's a sign or a spark that, when you see it, you're like, oh, this could be something? Is it social media today? Is it your students Like what could it be?

Elena Marinoni:

It could be literally everything. It could be a student which comes up with a new idea, it can be something that they see in a fair or an art exhibition, but it can be also something that driving change and online conversations on social media. So a trend forecaster is a bit like a leading antenna, so no matter where the signal comes from, but you have this capability to read the discontinuities, so like a bumper on the surface of reality. The surface of reality is the mainstream, is the norm, is the status quo and the weak signal that can be whatever basically works a bit as a bump on the surface of reality. So fake popcorn, which is a very popular American trend forecaster, used to use this expression cultural brailing, cultural brailing, the brailing language is the language that you use to perceive bumps on the surface of the. What's her name? Faith Faith Popcorn, the founder of Brain Reserve, which is an important American trend forecasting agency, and she coined this expression.

Elena Marinoni:

Very interesting expression. It's interesting because it gives you the idea that it's through your five senses, as a trend forecaster, as a living antenna, that you perceive and capture these discontinuities and something that puts a bit into discussion the norm or what you have seen so far. Then you can use tools or technology to, let's say, measure the speed at which this new something drives change and resonates and spreads.

Nour Hassan:

Interesting. Okay, so that's. I love the word antenna. I never thought of it this way, so this is new for me. I like it a lot, so I want to know in your experience how have trends gained traction in the region? I think it's so interesting for sure for you, as Elena, to come into the region, be here at Marangoni and and see so much change. The trends are happening. They are happening and moving very fast and I think it's hard to keep up sometimes, even as a content creator. So what are some trends you've seen in the region in general and how do you think it's like? What are the tools you would recommend to be able to keep up with such fast change?

Elena Marinoni:

well. As we said, the speed at which trends are propagated nowadays, especially in the region, is simply insane, which is the reason why AI and technology are no more, let's say, an option among the others. It's the only way, in my opinion, through which we can monitor such a complex and varied and rich scenario of trends. Yes, the region is incredibly. It's a bubbling scenario of new trends. Yes, the region is incredibly.

Elena Marinoni:

It's a bubbling scenario of new trends, I would say. Recently, I've been at the HIA Hub in Riyadh, for instance, and I've been mesmerized by this bubbling scenario with so many innovations, so many frontrunners, so many brands that are experimenting in the region, and so on. And another, for sure important aspect is that it's a region that is extremely multicultural. Yes, for instance, here in Marangoni, dubai, we have more than 50 different nationalities represented, and this is only our third year of operations, and this is an incredible source of inspiration for our students Also. The faculty is incredibly multicultural, students Also. The faculty is incredibly multicultural, and these are the ingredients for us to experiment and to embrace a multidisciplinary approach, because there is no innovation and creativity without research.

Elena Marinoni:

In this sense, trends are a subject that is integrated across all our curricula. It's true that you can have a subscription to a trend forecasting platform and have experts suggesting you and giving you advice about new trends, but trends are also it's a skill, okay, side skill that each creative mind can develop to become, let's say, a sharper observer of reality, to then inform and fuel creativity amazing okay, so, since you brought this up, I I would love to know, as an emerging designer, let's say, what are some tools that you would recommend, as Elena, for them to keep up with trends other than AI, and do you believe that there are trend forecasting platforms that are really strong?

Nour Hassan:

Are they reliable and what's your favorite one, for example, if you have?

Elena Marinoni:

Well, as an educator, I'd like to stress the fact that, yes, there are tools. There are many tools. There are the traditional ones, like trend books. We still have trend books that have become, let's say, more and more inspirational but less and less reliable, in a way. There are a lot of online trend forecasting platforms, such as Stylus, wgsn and so on. There is a new breed of trend forecasting platforms, but not only Nextatlas, also Euritech, for instance that are, in this sense, integrating a more data-driven approach and so on. But I would say that the trend forecasting can be conducted on a daily basis, also developing intellectual curiosity, being open-minded and embracing a sort of helicopter view when it comes to innovations across different fields. So it's really more a mindset, I would say, that we can all develop to become more effective in our daily job.

Nour Hassan:

Amazing. My last question for you is what are, within your career, some of your favorite trends? You've seen, Maybe come and go.

Elena Marinoni:

I would love to know. And yeah, that's it. Well, I think that one of the most powerful macro trends of our age is nostalgia and personally, I do love trends that somehow bring back the past and reinterpret the past, giving a more contemporary twist to decades from the past. I also do love the current convergence between street style and more sartorial attire, a sort of, let's say, crossover between the authenticity and the effortless authenticity of street style and, on the other hand, formal wear, so like materials, and then attention to details applied to styles where some cultures from the past resonate. This is very current and also in the region. And the third trend is more related to, let's say, tactile sophistication, the idea of craftsmanship, the idea of durability in design, replacing novelty and trends for the sake of trends. So it's a more long-termist approach to design, by the way, both in fashion and in interiors and in accessories, that favors high quality rather than, let's say, novelty.

Nour Hassan:

Yes, yes.

Elena Marinoni:

For the sake of it.

Nour Hassan:

A hundred percent. Yes, I think that's very interesting and I think it is the perfect point to end on because it really touches on the. I love long-termism, sustainability, thinking of how we can make something last rather than novelty. It really is a result of overexposure, but thank you so much, elena, for being on the podcast and for giving us your insights on trend forecasting in the region, and thank you for hosting me at the beautiful Institut Marangoni. It's an incredible space, thank you.

Elena Marinoni:

Thank you very much, Noor, for having me. I really enjoyed our conversation and whenever you want, please pass by to also meet with our students and see what's next in Marangoni Dubai. Thank you, Thank you.

Nour Hassan:

Thank you for listening. Make sure to follow Instituto Marangoni Dubai in order to stay updated with all of the programs and lectures, as well as degrees that they have available and, of course, at Radical Contemporary, to stay tuned for the remainder of our episodes during our press trip this winter in Dubai.